Eur/jpy

GB trades..not so good...stops...my best Pal

onwards and reaching a top
EUR/JPY...Projected daily 112.04  est. weekly turn 112.18/ 112.40
So, looking for signs of reversal @
 112.00 with 40 p stop..., exit 110.75 (1st)

(Estimated top today was under 10p

US/CHF still hovering at TOP...not much happening/stops in

next up

EUR/JPY took off...missed projected range a bit...I'll keep working on that

GB/CHF 1.5533 short...stop above 200ma

GB/JPY only 14p away from projected 'turn' (short)  1.3165

The time crunch continues

Us/chf (already entered had it set ahead)

Upcoming:
Eur/Jpy, reaching into BTM area ( 109.24/ 109.05) first level for reversal..."Turn-around-Tuesday"?

Daily turn: shows 109.06 BTM area... 1st reversal area...extreme number 108.35 (based on volatility extremes)...looking for reversal at first level...use stops as always

all other pairs still to far out from either end for now...IMO

long time no posting

Starting next week, I'll resume posting my Trade Ideas.
My personal schedule has FORCED me (screaming and kicking) to adjust or alter the "Plan"...in short?
I just cannot trade daily at the times I need to be front and center.
So,
Changes were made...I even considered dropping FX  and move on to something else...Options...<--still looking at that but once again this "Time" issue keeps getting in the way.
The "New" Plan?

For the last 3 weeks I've been trading weekly swing positions only...stop rolling your eyes...it's actually working out well.
Using the math, it cuts the stop-loss amount back to ...40 to 50 pip range and targets of 100 to 160+ gains over a few days (depending on pair) some pairs are only moving 80 to 90 pips...still...2 to 1 ratio roughly and thats fine with me.
I only have one trade active right now and closed out of all the rest so as of today I'm over 340 pips positive.
Good enough.

If you are interested, follow along...nothing to buy or subscribe to.
You will however have to change the way you evaluate each session and look at longer time frames until "Levels" are withing striking distance...takes a little patience and it may seem as if you are wasting time as "scalpers" post trades every few minutes out here on Twitter etc.<---if it works for you?...stay put
If not?
This is just an alternative Trading Idea, and  its working for me.
Generally a few pairs will hit the 'turn' early (tuesday*) and reach targets within 36/48 hours...here we are at Wednesday and I'm out of all but one (25pip stop-loss) so even if it does go "bad" I'm way ahead.

NFP Friday...if we see a drop in US/JPY , say 40/50 pips...low 83's...I'll be going long and holding...other than that, See you next week.

the new math

As in the past, when we get volatility extreme, the "math" slides off course...
I HAD WARNINGS
and yet...I "knew" better....#FAIL

Yeah...lessoned Learned

2 days ago 18 pairs I track 2 were "on target"...<---only once before has that happened out of the last...8/9 months.
Yesterday...9 out of 18 on target
Generally I get 12 to 13 on any given day.
Keep in mind  3 pairs were just added to my list.
I don't expect everyone to understand, it is a system that works for me so I'm sticking with it and in the future I will just have to "learn" to pay attention to the 'warnings" and not trade until the "math" comes back in line.
My EUR/GB "swing" is still negative *25pips...not so bad..if the math is right ?...I should be break even or a little ahead in the next 24 hours ( I'm showing a lower high than previous top)
-------------------
levels I'm looking for:

CHF/JPY: 84.43/ 83.64....(40P RANGE)

EUR/CHF: Looking for 1.3415* low for long entry (20p buffer)..60+ p

USD/CAD: Looking for 1.0205 low for long entry...target  50+ ( My upper level is about 1.0309/1.0320)

I'll put these on my charts and keep watch..

** Just trading ideas based on my own mathematical equations....NEVER A GUARANTEE

IMO

Re-Cap?

Sure..stopped out on EUR/GB...almost took out my monthly swing position too......went short .8820 putting stop above monthly Trend line/taking a bit of profit out.

China News coming out in a few hours...

2 choices:
#1. STAY OUT and we will be on better ground next week

#2. Look for spikes in AUD/NZ/EURO...and U.S. weakness
Suddenly the MEDIA is concerned about Japan and their debt...economy...yen strength...trying to talk it down/weaken...

Pairs nearing CHANNEL "Tops"...AUD/CHF, EUR/CHF...possibly short spike after China News


Did I mention..STAY OUT?

virus scans..

Just when You REALLY don't have the time...

I'm rushed...

EUR/GB: .8778 /.8704 ( LOOK AT CHART/ LEVELS IN BLUE).

re-cap & update

EUR/GB: THE CHART TELLS THE STORY...

US/CHF: Once again...math rules..

US/CAD....ok...it was bound to happen ...not much going on there..

GB/CHF:...

Getting too "sloppy"...8 pip spread and 40+ pip moves...time to put that one away for now....we had a great run, but the equation is changing.

*..I am noticing this across the board though and tonight I'm only posting 2 and a "heads -up" on a possible trade looming with AUD/CHF

SO,

EUR/GB: .8806 / .8735  AGAIN LOOKING FOR 40+...Keep an eye on levels /if price hits top, then bottom and reverses...look for possible repeat/ at least 50%

US/CHF: .9643 / .9539...Seems to be a bit range bound for now with downward pressure...looking for 50 p move

NOW...

AUD/CHF:  Look at chart

May be worth keeping an eye on for a possible short

re-cap Friday & new stuff

Friday 15th

EUR/GB called .8814/.8746
Looking to chart, I was over by 20 pips (15 to 18p buffer + spread) 19/22...add a triple top out..yeah I took that...trade as you see it and it did hit the .8746 level..no bounce....it was a judgement call for sure.

US/CAD: called 1.0093/ 1.0003

back to chart...

8 pips from target level giving us a 64 pip run

GB/CHF:  called 1.5322/ 1.5180

at 1.5324 /2 pips over we had a 35 pip drop..OK...not huge..was expecting 70+...didn't happen

CHF/JPY: called 85.80 / 85.10

@ 85.10 we had a 13 pip bounce..not great considering the spread

but

#2 @ 85.10...+26...I watch those levels for consolidation or turns and YES i took that

=========================================================================
=========================================================================

Going over my list of pairs, I had to delete a few due to spread and actual pip movement during the day...cutting down on risk

I don't want anything over an 8 spread and even with that it has to move 60+
So...CAD/JPY <---GONE
NZD/JPY <--GONE

Replaced with: EUR/CHF, GB/AUD & AUD/CHF, these I will work on and see if I can nail a predictable pattern...all in all I track 18 pairs, picking 4 or 5 (sometimes 3) to post here.
Simply don't have time to lay out all 18 and a few of those are still "work in progress".

There is no 'simple' equation to just post and let any of you figure it out daily, I do 4 to 5 calculations on some pairs and 2 to 3 on others...each move at different 'speeds' up and down....and it fluctuates.
Getting this "perfect" is an illusion as I will never be able to predict Volume on any given day or lot size/money flow, one way or another.
I stress to you these "levels" are NOT TRADING SIGNALS...Even though at times it may appear that way being only a few pips off.
Use these "Levels" as you would  a pivot point or an "over bought/over sold" indicator, read your candle stick pattern/look for more confirmation.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Stuff
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EUR/GB: .8780 / .8701 (40p )

US/CHF: .9635 / .9530 ( 45p)

US/CAD: 1.0148 /1.0054 (40+)

GB/CHF: 1.5407 / 1.5253 (65+)

C-YA Tomorrow

Quick re-cap & new levels

RE-CAPPAGE..

EUR/CAD:...Alright..keep in mind levels are for the turn..GOOD REASON WHY I refrain from the word "SWING" as clearly it was neither TOP or BOTTOM..
BUT...A few pips could have been made...I didn't take this trade

EUR/GB: Much better...

gb/chf:... NICE

CHF/JPY: Double dipper 50p X2

======================================================================

======================================================================

MOVING ON....

EUR/GB: .8814 / .8746   ...Looking for 40+

US/CAD: 1.0093 / 1.0003  ....30+

GB/CHF: 1.5322 / 1.5180 ....70+

CHF/JPY:  85.80 / 85.10 ....40+

I'll go over all pairs on weekend as spreads are getting huge on some...not worth trading...taking a crack at EUR/CHF...Will update...NZ/JPY <--GONE..LOOKING AT 12 POINT SPREAD

NEWS: Japan/China/Euro overnight...= volatility...no use taking chances...15 to 18 pip margin in play

re-cap and new levels

ok....CHARTS!!!!

EUR/CAD:

EUR/GB:

US/CAD:

GB/CHF:

NZ/JPY:..OK...COMPLETE MISS

should have studied the 4H chart instead as it bounced off top line...

=============================================================

NEW LEVELS: (DIRECTIONAL TURN)

==========================================================

EUR/CAD: 1.4068 / 1.3952 ( 35+ pip moves)

EUR/GB: .8810 / .8741 (35+)

GB/CHF: 1.5312 / 1.5160 (65+)..pattern seems to be one level within 15 or less

CHF/JPY: 85.78 / 85.02 (50+)

*Once again, look for turn at either level.., best case scenario we bounce between levels getting repeat moves...2 at most/last bounce cut by half.

Always look to indicators for confirmation...levels are based on math probabilities...never a guarantee

Home from the Holidays

Ok,
Interesting data from last week.
Notes for next NFP (and YES..The MATH worked even with the volatility the projected levels were in range )

It's a learning process

Anyway...

Levels I'm looking at:

EUR/CAD: 1.4106 / 1.4000 (avg. 55p move)

EUR/GBP: .8841 / ..8769 (avg. 35p)

US/CAD:   1.0146   /1.0057  (avg 40p)

GB/CHF: 1.5195 / 1.5059 (avg 65p +)

NZ/JPY: 62.18 / 61.50 * NOTE...Daily trend line top about 62.27 ( avg 40 p)

** starting to see levels widening, making adjustments as I go. Still believe 15/18 pip buffer should suffice.

A look back and ahead

.Quickly from yesterdays levels...

US/CAD slight bounce (20p) from 1.0110 <---My level was 1.0114...not much action there
GB/CHF: see chart/...4 pips under for an 80 pip bounce

 

CHF/JPY:  see chart...20 & 30 p bounces....8pips over TOP & 11 over BTM (within 15-18p buffer)

.NZ/JPY 8 pips from BTM level (61.90 posted)...actual 61.98 for 50* pip bounce/ 2 pips from TOP level

=================================================================

Onward:

Looking back at last month at this time, I'll go with what worked. (NFP week)

No guarantees it will work this time around though

AUD/JPY: 81.32 TOP / 80.74 BTM level....if it stays in this range look for repeats/ 45 to 60 pips

GB/CHF:1.5327 TOP / 1.5189 BTM..on a roll with this one...70+ pip moves

CHF/JPY: 86.43 TOP/ 85.89 BTM...30 PIP targets

NZ/JPY: 62.33 TOP / 62.00 BTM...30/50 PIP RANGE

EUR/CAD: 1.4136 TOP / 1.4020 BTM...Keep eye on upper level as it's hitting this resistance now several times/check daily chart

TONS OF NEWS /CABLE etc overnight/rules in play/15/18 pip buffer...trade safe...always next week to get better chances

Holiday here this weekend and I'm going away for a few days...I'll be back   probably posting Tuesday for Wednesday

Gotta love that GB/CHF...

I'M liking this more and more...7 pips off the BTM for a 80p gain.

US/CAD 5 pips from TOP (1.0266 posted) for a 70 pip run

US/CHF, under by -23 pips (sticking with rules 15-18 pips) NO TRADE (DON'T BLAME YOU IF YOU DID THOUGH..as it dropped about 40p

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New stuff

US/CAD: 1.0195 TOP/  1.0114 BTM may not move much considering News in the A.M.

GB/CHF: 1.5420 TOP / 1.5282 BTM

CHF/JPY: 86.42 TOP / 85.85 BTM

NZ/JPY: 62.52 TOP / 61.90 BTM

*KEEP in mind Japan News coming out overnight, and EURO/ GDP & German Factory orders...USUALLY we see a MAJOR slowdown as we wait for U.S. News.

Rough night ahead?

Looking at the schedule

Hard to pick something that won't go ballistic with a fat surprise..
Hopefully we can get our targets quick and leave the carnival ride for someone else.

Good time to practice strict rules with these levels:

US/CHF: .9761 TOP/ .9680 BTM....<--15-18 pip buffer both ends (40 to 55 pip range)
US/CAD: 1.0266 TOP/ 1.0187 BTM <--ONE OR THE OTHER/Don't count on both hitting (40/50pip range)
GB/CHF: 1.5435 TOP/1.5310 BTM <--If it is out by 18 pips ..IT'S OUT..Once again BIG moves with this pair, hitting 9 out of 9 days on one or both within the buffer zone. (70 to 120+ pip range)

These are not TRADE SIGNALS, Just areas to watch for directional turn.

Back to "Blogger"

http://hideous-fibs.sosblog.com

Yes, same guy...Had enough of that "blog", very problematic...

I'll just continue on and if you stumble across this, you can click above link to see a few months of results. I'm not one to 'self-promote' , not selling anything.
I use the 'other' Twitter account to post "Levels I'm watching" with a %% (stock-ly) click link and sign up if you want  http://stock.ly/member/register

THE "Other" Twitter account, the goal is to keep that one "pure", trade ideas/ trade related info only.
======================================================================

* Levels Posted:

Basically, the calculations started by finding the predicted range "High" & "Low" turning points  for the next day, refinements and adjustments along the way have narrowed this to the "Turn" of direction...not exactly the "Swing" point as the "High" of the day can be greater as the day progresses on some pairs.
What you will 'see' though is that these "Levels" have a high probability of reversing direction for a 30 + pip move, many times it's much more and occasionally it's a bit less (15 to20 pips)..and of course a "Complete miss" is always a factor....it's forex...expect the unexpected.
http://www.forextrading-ea.com/
In part, the 'levels' I post use a similar mathematical formula used in a "Trading Bot" .

* How to use:

I would suggest adding these "Levels" to your chart with a trend line and use as a guide along with indicators you are accustomed to using...Bollinger Bands, keltner channels, RSI, force, etc etc.
Whatever you use to gauge/identify a price reversal and if price is near one of those levels...looking weak, over bought/over sold, chances are (mathematical probability) direction is about to change.
It's been a few months since I started posting these levels (3rd Blog)...the first one was deleted (thank me later), the second blog (above link) will stay until I have a "History" here to look back on.
"On Paper", I have worked on the "math" for over 7 months and began posting "Levels" in July.



CHART BELOW IS AN EXAMPLE OF LEVELS POSTED ON September 27/10 for 28th on US/CHF : US/CHF: .9890 TOP / .9820 BTM     http://hideous-fibs.sosblog.com/The-first-blog-b1/Just-levelsno-re-cap-2night-b1-p31.htm

 As you can see, the BTM level .9820 (+2) was area of direction change, BUT NOT extreme "Low" for the day. TOP level was -15 (well within 20 pip buffer) <---again depending on experience/ability etc., could have been Trade #2.
The whole idea is to limit exposure, make your pips and move on.