My Trade Plans (FX)

Thursday, October 21, 2010

the new math

As in the past, when we get volatility extreme, the "math" slides off course...
I HAD WARNINGS
and yet...I "knew" better....#FAIL

Yeah...lessoned Learned

2 days ago 18 pairs I track 2 were "on target"...<---only once before has that happened out of the last...8/9 months.
Yesterday...9 out of 18 on target
Generally I get 12 to 13 on any given day.
Keep in mind 3 pairs were just added to my list.
I don't expect everyone to understand, it is a system that works for me so I'm sticking with it and in the future I will just have to "learn" to pay attention to the 'warnings" and not trade until the "math" comes back in line.
My EUR/GB "swing" is still negative *25pips...not so bad..if the math is right ?...I should be break even or a little ahead in the next 24 hours ( I'm showing a lower high than previous top)
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levels I'm looking for:

CHF/JPY: 84.43/ 83.64....(40P RANGE)

EUR/CHF: Looking for 1.3415* low for long entry (20p buffer)..60+ p

USD/CAD: Looking for 1.0205 low for long entry...target 50+ ( My upper level is about 1.0309/1.0320)

I'll put these on my charts and keep watch..

** Just trading ideas based on my own mathematical equations....NEVER A GUARANTEE

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

IMO

Re-Cap?

Sure..stopped out on EUR/GB...almost took out my monthly swing position too......went short .8820 putting stop above monthly Trend line/taking a bit of profit out.

China News coming out in a few hours...

2 choices:
#1. STAY OUT and we will be on better ground next week

#2. Look for spikes in AUD/NZ/EURO...and U.S. weakness
Suddenly the MEDIA is concerned about Japan and their debt...economy...yen strength...trying to talk it down/weaken...

Pairs nearing CHANNEL "Tops"...AUD/CHF, EUR/CHF...possibly short spike after China News

Did I mention..STAY OUT?

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

virus scans..

Just when You REALLY don't have the time...

I'm rushed...

EUR/GB: .8778 /.8704 ( LOOK AT CHART/ LEVELS IN BLUE).

Monday, October 18, 2010

re-cap & update

EUR/GB: THE CHART TELLS THE STORY...

US/CHF: Once again...math rules..

US/CAD....ok...it was bound to happen ...not much going on there..

GB/CHF:...

Getting too "sloppy"...8 pip spread and 40+ pip moves...time to put that one away for now....we had a great run, but the equation is changing.

*..I am noticing this across the board though and tonight I'm only posting 2 and a "heads -up" on a possible trade looming with AUD/CHF

SO,

EUR/GB: .8806 / .8735 AGAIN LOOKING FOR 40+...Keep an eye on levels /if price hits top, then bottom and reverses...look for possible repeat/ at least 50%

US/CHF: .9643 / .9539...Seems to be a bit range bound for now with downward pressure...looking for 50 p move

NOW...

AUD/CHF: Look at chart

May be worth keeping an eye on for a possible short

Sunday, October 17, 2010

re-cap Friday & new stuff

Friday 15th

EUR/GB called .8814/.8746
Looking to chart, I was over by 20 pips (15 to 18p buffer + spread) 19/22...add a triple top out..yeah I took that...trade as you see it and it did hit the .8746 level..no bounce....it was a judgement call for sure.

US/CAD: called 1.0093/ 1.0003

back to chart...

8 pips from target level giving us a 64 pip run

GB/CHF: called 1.5322/ 1.5180

at 1.5324 /2 pips over we had a 35 pip drop..OK...not huge..was expecting 70+...didn't happen

CHF/JPY: called 85.80 / 85.10

@ 85.10 we had a 13 pip bounce..not great considering the spread

but

#2 @ 85.10...+26...I watch those levels for consolidation or turns and YES i took that

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Going over my list of pairs, I had to delete a few due to spread and actual pip movement during the day...cutting down on risk

I don't want anything over an 8 spread and even with that it has to move 60+
So...CAD/JPY <---GONE
NZD/JPY <--GONE

Replaced with: EUR/CHF, GB/AUD & AUD/CHF, these I will work on and see if I can nail a predictable pattern...all in all I track 18 pairs, picking 4 or 5 (sometimes 3) to post here.
Simply don't have time to lay out all 18 and a few of those are still "work in progress".

There is no 'simple' equation to just post and let any of you figure it out daily, I do 4 to 5 calculations on some pairs and 2 to 3 on others...each move at different 'speeds' up and down....and it fluctuates.
Getting this "perfect" is an illusion as I will never be able to predict Volume on any given day or lot size/money flow, one way or another.
I stress to you these "levels" are NOT TRADING SIGNALS...Even though at times it may appear that way being only a few pips off.
Use these "Levels" as you would a pivot point or an "over bought/over sold" indicator, read your candle stick pattern/look for more confirmation.
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New Stuff
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EUR/GB: .8780 / .8701 (40p )

US/CHF: .9635 / .9530 ( 45p)

US/CAD: 1.0148 /1.0054 (40+)

GB/CHF: 1.5407 / 1.5253 (65+)

C-YA Tomorrow

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Quick re-cap & new levels

RE-CAPPAGE..

EUR/CAD:...Alright..keep in mind levels are for the turn..GOOD REASON WHY I refrain from the word "SWING" as clearly it was neither TOP or BOTTOM..
BUT...A few pips could have been made...I didn't take this trade

EUR/GB: Much better...

gb/chf:... NICE

CHF/JPY: Double dipper 50p X2

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MOVING ON....

EUR/GB: .8814 / .8746 ...Looking for 40+

US/CAD: 1.0093 / 1.0003 ....30+

GB/CHF: 1.5322 / 1.5180 ....70+

CHF/JPY: 85.80 / 85.10 ....40+

I'll go over all pairs on weekend as spreads are getting huge on some...not worth trading...taking a crack at EUR/CHF...Will update...NZ/JPY <--GONE..LOOKING AT 12 POINT SPREAD

NEWS: Japan/China/Euro overnight...= volatility...no use taking chances...15 to 18 pip margin in play